bayesRatings

Rockies at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final COL 6 – CHC 8
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL001010031690
CHC070100008121
Team box
COL·CHC
9
hits
12
4
home runs
2
2
walks
4
3
strikeouts
6
143
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sterlin ThompsonCOL3-4222
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4112
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4112
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4111
Matt ShawCHC2-4102
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Sullivan (L)COL4.09822
Javier Assad (W)CHC5.25201
Jacob Webb (S)CHC1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +7
COL +7
123456789
largest lead: CHC 7 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, CHC 66% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
CHC by 1.8
Expected score
CHC 5.7 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.6
RockiesThe matchupCubs
+195Our fair odds−195
3.9Expected runs5.7
−0.54Power rating+0.06
4.6Runs / game4.5
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game4.3
28−46Season record38−36
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair33.9%66.1%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19534%+17336.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−19566%−20867.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.8
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more51%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLSean Sullivan SP · last 1 start: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CHC
Jun 16 at CHC
last game
Jun 16 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
COL·CHC
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.6
runs / game
4.5
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
28−46
season record
38−36
14−20
home record
21−16
14−26
away record
17−20
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.61
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

COL · CHC · 84 days
Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Jun 16at CHCCOL 5 − 2
Jun 15at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Jun 11at COLCHC 9 − 3
Jun 10at COLCOL 3 − 2
Jun 9at COLCOL 7 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2025at COLCHC 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at COLCHC 11 − 7
May 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 27, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L
Jun 9at COL3 − 7L
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W