bayesRatings

Mariners at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final SEA 3 – PIT 2
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000100200382
PIT0110000002101
Team box
SEA·PIT
8
hits
10
2
home runs
0
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
142
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA1-3112
Cal RaleighSEA1-4111
Marcell OzunaPIT1-3001
Brandon LowePIT2-5100
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4000
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Kirby (W)SEA6.09125
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00003
Mitch Keller (L)PIT6.07314

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 2 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 50%, PIT 50% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
8.6
MarinersThe matchupPirates
−101Our fair odds+101
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game5.0
3.9Allowed / game4.8
7.7Hits / game8.8
1.24Home runs / game1.21
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
40−39Season record39−39
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10150%−13757.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10150%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byPIT wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 20 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·PIT
Jun 21 vs BOS
last game
Jun 21 at COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
SEA·PIT
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
5.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
40−39
season record
39−39
22−19
home record
20−19
18−20
away record
19−20
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.8
1.24
home runs / game
1.21
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.46
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SEA · PIT · 90 days
Seattle MarinersPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PIT 3−6
Jul 6, 2025at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jul 5, 2025at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jul 4, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at PITSEA 10 − 3
Aug 17, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 2
Aug 16, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 3
May 28, 2023at SEASEA 6 − 3
May 27, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 0
May 26, 2023at SEAPIT 11 − 6

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 20vs BOS1 − 5L
Jun 19vs BOS2 − 6L
Jun 18vs BAL3 − 0W
Jun 17vs BAL3 − 5L
Jun 16vs BAL3 − 1W
Jun 14at WSH1 − 10L
Jun 13at WSH3 − 8L
Jun 12at WSH10 − 2W
Jun 11at BAL5 − 7L

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 21at COL8 − 6W
Jun 20at COL1 − 2L
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L