bayesRatings

Orioles at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final BAL 1 – SEA 3
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL100000000130
SEA00100020360
Team box
BAL·SEA
3
hits
6
0
home runs
0
1
walks
6
12
strikeouts
2
120
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cal RaleighSEA1-3002
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4001
Julio RodriguezSEA1-4001
Taylor WardBAL1-4100
Adley RutschmanBAL1-4000
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (L)BAL6.04342
Logan Gilbert (W)SEA7.021110
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · BAL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, SEA 55% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 4.6 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.6
OriolesThe matchupMariners
+123Our fair odds−123
3.9Expected runs4.6
−0.07Power rating+0.06
4.7Runs / game4.3
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.1Hits / game7.9
1.18Home runs / game1.29
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
34−39Season record37−36
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12345%+12444.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12355%−14859.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.7
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.7 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·SEA
Jun 14 vs SD
last game
Jun 14 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
BAL·SEA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.7
runs / game
4.3
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
34−39
season record
37−36
22−19
home record
19−16
12−20
away record
18−20
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.9
1.18
home runs / game
1.29
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.56
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

BAL · SEA · 83 days
Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Jun 11at BALBAL 7 − 5
Jun 10at BALBAL 7 − 2
Jun 9at BALSEA 6 − 5
Jun 8at BALSEA 6 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 3
Aug 12, 2025at BALSEA 1 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at SEABAL 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at SEABAL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at SEABAL 5 − 1

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 14vs SD2 − 5L
Jun 13vs SD3 − 9L
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 14at WSH1 − 10L
Jun 13at WSH3 − 8L
Jun 12at WSH10 − 2W
Jun 11at BAL5 − 7L
Jun 10at BAL2 − 7L
Jun 9at BAL6 − 5W
Jun 8at BAL6 − 3W
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L