bayesRatings

Mariners at Nationals

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final SEA 10 – WSH 2
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA05003001110110
WSH000100010240
Team box
SEA·WSH
11
hits
4
3
home runs
2
3
walks
0
4
strikeouts
8
100
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4213
Colt EmersonSEA1-4112
James WoodWSH2-4111
Josh NaylorSEA1-5111
Dylan CrewsWSH1-3111
Luke RaleySEA1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Miller (W)SEA8.04207
Zack Littell (L)WSH1.24510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +8
SEA +8
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · SEA 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
SEA by 0.9
Expected score
SEA 5.7 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.4
MarinersThe matchupNationals
−110Our fair odds+110
5.7Expected runs4.8
+0.08Power rating−0.09
4.2Runs / game5.4
3.9Allowed / game5.3
7.9Hits / game8.4
1.29Home runs / game1.29
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
36−34Season record35−34
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11052%−14859.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11048%+12444.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.9
SEASeattle Mariners−0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.9 expected
Seattle Mariners by 16 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byWSH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more45%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·WSH
Jun 11 at BAL
last game
Jun 10 at SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
SEA·WSH
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.2
runs / game
5.4
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.3
36−34
season record
35−34
19−16
home record
12−20
17−18
away record
23−14
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.4
1.29
home runs / game
1.29
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.43
errors / game
0.84

Rating Trend

SEA · WSH · 79 days
Seattle MarinersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
May 29, 2025at SEAWSH 9 − 3
May 28, 2025at SEAWSH 9 − 0
May 27, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 1
May 26, 2024at WSHSEA 9 − 5
May 25, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 1
May 24, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jun 28, 2023at SEAWSH 4 − 1
Jun 27, 2023at SEAWSH 7 − 4
Jun 26, 2023at SEASEA 8 − 4
Aug 24, 2022at SEAWSH 3 − 1

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 11at BAL5 − 7L
Jun 10at BAL2 − 7L
Jun 9at BAL6 − 5W
Jun 8at BAL6 − 3W
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W
Jun 5at ARI14 − 1W
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W