bayesRatings

Mariners at Orioles

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 6:00 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SEA 5 – BAL 7
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA100400000590
BAL00601000771
Team box
SEA·BAL
9
hits
7
3
home runs
2
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
7
128
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA3-5111
Adley RutschmanBAL2-3103
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4112
Luke RaleySEA1-4112
Colton CowserBAL1-4111
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (L)SEA5.07714
Kyle BradishBAL4.07535
Tyler Wells (W)BAL3.00014
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, BAL 48% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 5.0 – 4.4 BAL
Expected total
9.4
MarinersThe matchupOrioles
−110Our fair odds+110
5.0Expected runs4.4
+0.08Power rating−0.07
4.2Runs / game4.7
3.8Allowed / game5.1
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.26Home runs / game1.16
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
36−33Season record32−37
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · BAL chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11052%−11653.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11048%−10751.8%———
SpreadSEA by 0.7
SEASeattle Mariners−0.7our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.7 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byBAL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·BAL
Jun 10 at BAL
last game
Jun 10 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
SEA·BAL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.7
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
36−33
season record
32−37
19−16
home record
20−17
17−17
away record
12−20
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.26
home runs / game
1.16
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.43
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

SEA · BAL · 78 days
Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Jun 10at BALBAL 7 − 2
Jun 9at BALSEA 6 − 5
Jun 8at BALSEA 6 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 3
Aug 12, 2025at BALSEA 1 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at SEABAL 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at SEABAL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at SEABAL 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at SEASEA 7 − 3

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 10at BAL2 − 7L
Jun 9at BAL6 − 5W
Jun 8at BAL6 − 3W
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W