bayesRatings

Mariners at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SEA 2 – BAL 7
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000000020241
BAL000003407110
Team box
SEA·BAL
4
hits
11
0
home runs
2
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
121
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson HollidayBAL1-4114
Pete AlonsoBAL2-5211
Leody TaverasBAL2-3201
Tyler O'NeillBAL2-4000
Blaze AlexanderBAL1-3001
Josh NaylorSEA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Kirby (L)SEA6.073310
Brandon Young (W)BAL7.02025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +7
SEA +7
123456789
largest lead: BAL 7 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 53%, BAL 47% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 5.1 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.4
MarinersThe matchupOrioles
−113Our fair odds+113
5.1Expected runs4.3
+0.09Power rating−0.08
4.3Runs / game4.7
3.8Allowed / game5.2
8.0Hits / game8.0
1.28Home runs / game1.15
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
36−32Season record31−37
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · BAL chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11353%−11252.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11347%−10751.8%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byBAL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more44%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·BAL
Jun 9 at BAL
last game
Jun 9 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
SEA·BAL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.3
runs / game
4.7
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.2
36−32
season record
31−37
19−16
home record
19−17
17−16
away record
12−20
W2
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.0
1.28
home runs / game
1.15
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.43
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SEA · BAL · 77 days
Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Jun 9at BALSEA 6 − 5
Jun 8at BALSEA 6 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 3
Aug 12, 2025at BALSEA 1 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at SEABAL 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at SEABAL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at SEABAL 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at SEASEA 7 − 3
Jul 3, 2024at SEABAL 4 − 1

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 9at BAL6 − 5W
Jun 8at BAL6 − 3W
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W
May 30vs TOR6 − 5W