bayesRatings

Mariners at Orioles

MLB · Monday, Jun 8 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SEA 6 – BAL 3
← MLB / Jun 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000050010690
BAL001000110360
Team box
SEA·BAL
9
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
6
5
strikeouts
6
167
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh NaylorSEA2-4214
Randy ArozarenaSEA3-4001
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-3101
Taylor WardBAL2-3000
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-3100
Leody TaverasBAL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson Hancock (W)SEA5.03123
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00012
Trey Gibson (L)BAL4.25310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 1 · SEA 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, BAL 48% · Updated Jun 8

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 5.1 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.3
MarinersThe matchupOrioles
−110Our fair odds+110
5.1Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.07
4.2Runs / game4.7
3.8Allowed / game5.2
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.27Home runs / game1.17
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
34−32Season record31−35
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · BAL chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11052%−12655.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11048%+10548.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byBAL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more44%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALTrey Gibson SP · last 2 starts: 10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·BAL
Jun 7 at DET
last game
Jun 7 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
SEA·BAL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.7
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.2
34−32
season record
31−35
19−16
home record
19−15
15−16
away record
12−20
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.27
home runs / game
1.17
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.42
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SEA · BAL · 75 days
Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 8−2
Aug 14, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 3
Aug 12, 2025at BALSEA 1 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at SEABAL 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at SEABAL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at SEABAL 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at SEASEA 7 − 3
Jul 3, 2024at SEABAL 4 − 1
Jul 2, 2024at SEABAL 2 − 0
May 19, 2024at BALBAL 6 − 3

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W
May 29vs ARI7 − 6W
May 27at ATH9 − 1W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W
May 30vs TOR6 − 5W
May 29vs TOR5 − 6L
May 28vs TOR1 − 2L