bayesRatings

Padres at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SD 3 – BAL 7
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD110010000370
BAL33010000781
Team box
SD·BAL
7
hits
8
0
home runs
2
3
walks
7
6
strikeouts
11
141
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-3211
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4112
Gavin SheetsSD2-4002
Pete AlonsoBAL1-1102
Tyler O'NeillBAL2-4100
Manny MachadoSD2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Canning (L)SD5.06756
Shane Baz (W)BAL5.06221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · SD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 51%, BAL 49% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.7 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.0
PadresThe matchupOrioles
−103Our fair odds+103
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.06
3.8Runs / game4.7
4.0Allowed / game5.1
7.1Hits / game8.1
1.00Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
35−32Season record33−37
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10351%+10947.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10349%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byBAL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·BAL
Jun 10 vs CIN
last game
Jun 11 vs SEA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
SD·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.8
runs / game
4.7
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.1
35−32
season record
33−37
19−19
home record
21−17
16−13
away record
12−20
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.1
hits / game
8.1
1.00
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.31
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SD · BAL · 79 days
San Diego PadresBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BAL 5−4
Sep 3, 2025at SDBAL 7 − 5
Sep 2, 2025at SDBAL 6 − 2
Sep 1, 2025at SDBAL 4 − 3
Jul 28, 2024at BALBAL 8 − 6
Jul 27, 2024at BALSD 9 − 4
Jul 26, 2024at BALSD 6 − 4
Aug 16, 2023at SDSD 5 − 2
Aug 15, 2023at SDSD 10 − 3
Aug 14, 2023at SDBAL 4 − 1

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L
May 31at WSH2 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W