bayesRatings

Mets at Padres

MLB · Saturday, Jun 6 · 9:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final NYM 2 – SD 3
← MLB / Jun 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010000100260
SD00100020350
Team box
NYM·SD
6
hits
5
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
6
135
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcus SemienNYM2-3211
Freddy FerminSD1-2112
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-4001
Brett BatyNYM1-3001
Sung-Mun SongSD2-2200
Bo BichetteNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLeanNYM6.03135
Austin Warren (L)NYM2.02201
Griffin CanningSD5.03126
Bradgley Rodriguez (W)SD1.01101
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, SD 53% · Updated Jun 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
7.7
MetsThe matchupPadres
+112Our fair odds−112
3.8Expected runs4.0
−0.02Power rating+0.04
4.1Runs / game3.8
4.2Allowed / game4.0
7.6Hits / game7.0
1.00Home runs / game1.02
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
28−35Season record32−30
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SD chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11247%−12655.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11253%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.2our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SD
Jun 5 at SD
last game
Jun 5 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
NYM·SD
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.1
runs / game
3.8
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
28−35
season record
32−30
15−15
home record
16−17
13−20
away record
16−13
W2
streak
L6
6−4
last 10
1−9
7.6
hits / game
7.0
1.00
home runs / game
1.02
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.54
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

NYM · SD · 73 days
New York MetsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Jun 5at SDNYM 5 − 0
Sep 18, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at NYMSD 7 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at SDSD 7 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SDSD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2024at SDSD 3 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at SDNYM 7 − 1
Aug 23, 2024at SDSD 7 − 0

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 5at SD5 − 0W
Jun 3at SEA7 − 1W
Jun 2at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 1at SEA2 − 3L
May 31vs MIA10 − 1W
May 30vs MIA6 − 1W
May 29vs MIA9 − 7W
May 27vs CIN4 − 2W
May 26vs CIN2 − 7L
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L

SD · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L
May 31at WSH2 − 4L
May 30at WSH4 − 9L
May 29at WSH7 − 5W
May 27vs PHI0 − 3L
May 26vs PHI3 − 4L
May 25vs PHI0 − 3L