bayesRatings

Mets at Padres

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final NYM 5 – SD 0
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM011020001591
SD000000000030
Team box
NYM·SD
9
hits
3
2
home runs
0
0
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
136
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis TorrensNYM2-3212
Jared YoungNYM2-4111
Bo BichetteNYM2-4001
Brett BatyNYM2-4101
A.J. EwingNYM1-4100
Manny MachadoSD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian Scott (W)NYM5.23023
Michael King (L)SD6.06404

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · NYM 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, SD 53% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 3.7 NYM
Expected total
7.7
MetsThe matchupPadres
+114Our fair odds−114
3.7Expected runs4.0
−0.03Power rating+0.05
4.0Runs / game3.9
4.3Allowed / game4.0
7.6Hits / game7.0
0.98Home runs / game1.03
2.9Walks drawn / game3.2
27−35Season record32−29
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SD chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11447%+10947.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11453%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more37%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more26%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SD
Jun 3 at SEA
last game
Jun 4 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
NYM·SD
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.0
runs / game
3.9
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.0
27−35
season record
32−29
15−15
home record
16−16
12−20
away record
16−13
W1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
1−9
7.6
hits / game
7.0
0.98
home runs / game
1.03
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.53
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

NYM · SD · 72 days
New York MetsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Sep 18, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at NYMSD 7 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at SDSD 7 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SDSD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2024at SDSD 3 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at SDNYM 7 − 1
Aug 23, 2024at SDSD 7 − 0
Aug 22, 2024at SDNYM 8 − 3

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 3at SEA7 − 1W
Jun 2at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 1at SEA2 − 3L
May 31vs MIA10 − 1W
May 30vs MIA6 − 1W
May 29vs MIA9 − 7W
May 27vs CIN4 − 2W
May 26vs CIN2 − 7L
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L
May 24at MIA0 − 4L

SD · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L
May 31at WSH2 − 4L
May 30at WSH4 − 9L
May 29at WSH7 − 5W
May 27vs PHI0 − 3L
May 26vs PHI3 − 4L
May 25vs PHI0 − 3L
May 24vs ATH2 − 5L