bayesRatings

Reds at Padres

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CIN 4 – SD 5
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0002001104100
SD1000100215110
Team box
CIN·SD
10
hits
11
3
home runs
1
4
walks
1
4
strikeouts
7
160
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-5112
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4111
Spencer SteerCIN1-5112
JJ BledayCIN1-3211
Noelvi MarteCIN2-4000
Manny MachadoSD1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady SingerCIN6.06215
Chase Petty (L)CIN0.21100
Michael KingSD6.27333
Wandy Peralta (W)SD1.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · CIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, SD 54% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.6 CIN
Expected total
7.8
RedsThe matchupPadres
+117Our fair odds−117
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.06Power rating+0.03
4.3Runs / game3.8
5.1Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game7.0
1.24Home runs / game1.00
3.9Walks drawn / game3.2
32−34Season record34−32
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · SD chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11746%+13442.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11754%−16161.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
CINCincinnati Reds+0.6our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 7.47 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·SD
Jun 9 at SD
last game
Jun 9 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
CIN·SD
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.3
runs / game
3.8
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
32−34
season record
34−32
16−16
home record
18−19
16−18
away record
16−13
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
2−8
7.8
hits / game
7.0
1.24
home runs / game
1.00
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.48
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

CIN · SD · 77 days
Cincinnati RedsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Jun 9at SDCIN 5 − 3
Jun 8at SDSD 6 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at SDCIN 2 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at SDCIN 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CINSD 6 − 4
Jun 27, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 1
May 23, 2024at CINSD 6 − 4
May 22, 2024at CINSD 7 − 3

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L

SD · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L
May 31at WSH2 − 4L
May 30at WSH4 − 9L