bayesRatings

Reds at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CIN 3 – STL 10
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN300000000393
STL2010160010100
Team box
CIN·STL
9
hits
10
0
home runs
1
4
walks
9
7
strikeouts
10
198
pitches thrown
157
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4411
Sal StewartCIN2-3102
Jordan WalkerSTL3-5001
Lars NootbaarSTL2-6101
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4001
Blake DunnCIN2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (L)CIN4.04136
Kyle LeahySTL4.05321
Hunter Dobbins (W)STL5.04026

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +7
CIN +7
123456789
largest lead: STL 7 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.4 – 4.4 CIN
Expected total
8.8
RedsThe matchupCardinals
+108Our fair odds−108
4.4Expected runs4.4
−0.04Power rating−0.02
4.3Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.1
1.26Home runs / game1.08
3.9Walks drawn / game3.2
31−30Season record32−28
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10848%+11945.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10852%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more26%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.82 ERA, 10 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·STL
Jun 3 vs KC
last game
Jun 3 vs TEX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
CIN·STL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.3
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
31−30
season record
32−28
16−16
home record
16−16
15−14
away record
16−12
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.1
1.26
home runs / game
1.08
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.43
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

CIN · STL · 72 days
Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Sep 15, 2025at STLCIN 11 − 6
Aug 31, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at CINSTL 4 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at CINSTL 7 − 5
Jun 22, 2025at STLCIN 4 − 1
Jun 21, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L
May 29vs ATL3 − 8L
May 27at NYM2 − 4L
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 3vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 2vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W
May 30vs CHC1 − 6L
May 29vs CHC6 − 5W
May 27at MIL1 − 2L
May 26at MIL0 − 6L
May 25at MIL1 − 5L
May 23at CIN6 − 7L