bayesRatings

Reds at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, Jun 6 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CIN 5 – STL 6
← MLB / Jun 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN003200000590
STL030010026131
Team box
CIN·STL
9
hits
13
1
home runs
2
4
walks
2
6
strikeouts
7
140
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt McLainCIN1-3212
Lars NootbaarSTL1-1112
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4111
Masyn WinnSTL2-5002
Blake DunnCIN3-4100
Jose FerminSTL3-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick LodoloCIN5.010413
Sam Moll (L)CIN1.02201
Matthew LiberatoreSTL4.14334
George Soriano (W)STL1.01000
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.02011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · CIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jun 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.5 – 4.4 CIN
Expected total
8.8
RedsThe matchupCardinals
+110Our fair odds−110
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.05Power rating−0.01
4.3Runs / game4.4
5.1Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.1
1.24Home runs / game1.08
3.9Walks drawn / game3.3
31−31Season record33−28
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11048%+10548.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11052%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 14 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·STL
Jun 5 at STL
last game
Jun 5 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
CIN·STL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.3
runs / game
4.4
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.5
31−31
season record
33−28
16−16
home record
17−16
15−15
away record
16−12
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.1
1.24
home runs / game
1.08
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.47
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CIN · STL · 73 days
Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Sep 15, 2025at STLCIN 11 − 6
Aug 31, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at CINSTL 4 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at CINSTL 7 − 5
Jun 22, 2025at STLCIN 4 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L
May 29vs ATL3 − 8L
May 27at NYM2 − 4L
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 5vs CIN10 − 3W
Jun 3vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 2vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W
May 30vs CHC1 − 6L
May 29vs CHC6 − 5W
May 27at MIL1 − 2L
May 26at MIL0 − 6L
May 25at MIL1 − 5L