bayesRatings

Reds at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CIN 5 – SD 3
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
CIN01100000012580
SD002000000103121
Team box
CIN·SD
8
hits
12
1
home runs
0
8
walks
4
16
strikeouts
13
176
pitches thrown
219
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN1-4112
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD4-6100
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4001
Manny MachadoSD2-5001
Samad TaylorSD2-4001
Jackson MerrillSD2-6101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase BurnsCIN5.16227
Tejay Antone (W)CIN1.01002
Zach Maxwell (S)CIN1.00000
Lucas GiolitoSD4.02153
Yuki Matsui (L)SD1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
CIN +3
1234567891011
largest lead: SD 0 · CIN 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, SD 54% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
SD by 0.7
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.5 CIN
Expected total
7.8
RedsThe matchupPadres
+118Our fair odds−118
3.5Expected runs4.2
−0.07Power rating+0.04
4.3Runs / game3.8
5.1Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game7.0
1.25Home runs / game1.02
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
31−34Season record34−31
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11846%−13156.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11854%+10947.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.7
CINCincinnati Reds+0.7our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.7 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more42%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 26 Kstarted
SDLucas Giolito SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·SD
Jun 8 at SD
last game
Jun 8 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
CIN·SD
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.3
runs / game
3.8
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
31−34
season record
34−31
16−16
home record
18−18
15−18
away record
16−13
L5
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.0
1.25
home runs / game
1.02
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.49
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

CIN · SD · 76 days
Cincinnati RedsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Jun 8at SDSD 6 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at SDCIN 2 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at SDCIN 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CINSD 6 − 4
Jun 27, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 1
May 23, 2024at CINSD 6 − 4
May 22, 2024at CINSD 7 − 3
May 21, 2024at CINCIN 2 − 0

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L
May 29vs ATL3 − 8L

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L
May 31at WSH2 − 4L
May 30at WSH4 − 9L
May 29at WSH7 − 5W