bayesRatings

Padres at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Jun 14 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SD 5 – BAL 2
← MLB / Jun 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD020000201580
BAL0000101002103
Team box
SD·BAL
8
hits
10
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rodolfo DuranSD2-4213
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-4002
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-2111
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-4001
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-4100
Jackson MerrillSD2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker Buehler (W)SD5.06105
Mason Miller (S)SD1.10003
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL6.05224

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · SD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 51%, BAL 49% · Updated Jun 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.7 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.0
PadresThe matchupOrioles
−103Our fair odds+103
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.06
3.9Runs / game4.7
4.1Allowed / game5.2
7.1Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.18
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
36−33Season record34−38
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10351%+11446.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10349%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byBAL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·BAL
Jun 13 at BAL
last game
Jun 13 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
SD·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.9
runs / game
4.7
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.2
36−33
season record
34−38
19−19
home record
22−18
17−14
away record
12−20
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.1
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.18
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.30
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SD · BAL · 81 days
San Diego PadresBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Jun 13at BALSD 9 − 3
Jun 12at BALBAL 7 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at SDBAL 7 − 5
Sep 2, 2025at SDBAL 6 − 2
Sep 1, 2025at SDBAL 4 − 3
Jul 28, 2024at BALBAL 8 − 6
Jul 27, 2024at BALSD 9 − 4
Jul 26, 2024at BALSD 6 − 4
Aug 16, 2023at SDSD 5 − 2
Aug 15, 2023at SDSD 10 − 3

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 13at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 12at BAL3 − 7L
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 13vs SD3 − 9L
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W