bayesRatings

Padres at Orioles

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SD 9 – BAL 3
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD4000201119100
BAL2000001003100
Team box
SD·BAL
10
hits
10
5
home runs
1
6
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Samad TaylorSD3-5113
Pete AlonsoBAL3-5112
Jackson MerrillSD1-4112
Manny MachadoSD1-5211
Rodolfo DuranSD1-1111
Gavin SheetsSD1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy Vasquez (W)SD5.06225
Trey Gibson (L)BAL4.13657

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · SD 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.6 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
8.9
PadresThe matchupOrioles
−101Our fair odds+101
4.6Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.05
3.8Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game5.1
7.1Hits / game8.1
0.99Home runs / game1.18
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
35−33Season record34−37
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10150%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byBAL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 8 Kstarted
BALTrey Gibson SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·BAL
Jun 12 at BAL
last game
Jun 12 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
SD·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.8
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.1
35−33
season record
34−37
19−19
home record
22−17
16−14
away record
12−20
L1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.1
hits / game
8.1
0.99
home runs / game
1.18
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.31
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SD · BAL · 80 days
San Diego PadresBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Jun 12at BALBAL 7 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at SDBAL 7 − 5
Sep 2, 2025at SDBAL 6 − 2
Sep 1, 2025at SDBAL 4 − 3
Jul 28, 2024at BALBAL 8 − 6
Jul 27, 2024at BALSD 9 − 4
Jul 26, 2024at BALSD 6 − 4
Aug 16, 2023at SDSD 5 − 2
Aug 15, 2023at SDSD 10 − 3
Aug 14, 2023at SDBAL 4 − 1

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 12at BAL3 − 7L
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L
Jun 4at PHI4 − 6L
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L