bayesRatings

Mariners at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final SEA 3 – WSH 8
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000030000382
WSH300020308101
Team box
SEA·WSH
8
hits
10
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
150
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH3-4202
Colt EmersonSEA1-4112
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-3212
Mitch GarverSEA2-4101
Jose TenaWSH2-4001
Cole YoungSEA2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (L)SEA5.27224
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH5.04305

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 5 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 53%, WSH 47% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
SEA by 1.0
Expected score
SEA 5.8 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.5
MarinersThe matchupNationals
−112Our fair odds+112
5.8Expected runs4.8
+0.09Power rating−0.10
4.3Runs / game5.3
3.8Allowed / game5.4
8.0Hits / game8.4
1.31Home runs / game1.30
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
37−34Season record35−35
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11253%−10350.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11247%−12154.7%———
SpreadSEA by 1.0
SEASeattle Mariners−1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.0 expected
Seattle Mariners by 16 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byWSH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more46%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more36%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 17 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·WSH
Jun 12 at WSH
last game
Jun 12 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
SEA·WSH
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.3
runs / game
5.3
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.4
37−34
season record
35−35
19−16
home record
12−21
18−18
away record
23−14
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.4
1.31
home runs / game
1.30
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.42
errors / game
0.83

Rating Trend

SEA · WSH · 80 days
Seattle MarinersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Jun 12at WSHSEA 10 − 2
May 29, 2025at SEAWSH 9 − 3
May 28, 2025at SEAWSH 9 − 0
May 27, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 1
May 26, 2024at WSHSEA 9 − 5
May 25, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 1
May 24, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jun 28, 2023at SEAWSH 4 − 1
Jun 27, 2023at SEAWSH 7 − 4
Jun 26, 2023at SEASEA 8 − 4

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 12at WSH10 − 2W
Jun 11at BAL5 − 7L
Jun 10at BAL2 − 7L
Jun 9at BAL6 − 5W
Jun 8at BAL6 − 3W
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W
Jun 5at ARI14 − 1W
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L