bayesRatings

Pirates at Athletics

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final PIT 2 – ATH 11
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000100010282
ATH0302105011141
Team box
PIT·ATH
8
hits
14
1
home runs
3
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
8
160
pitches thrown
151
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH3-4225
Jeff McNeilATH3-4314
Endy RodriguezPIT3-3111
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4201
Zack GelofATH1-4101
Henry BolteATH2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared Jones (L)PIT4.08514
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH6.06023

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +10
PIT +10
123456789
largest lead: ATH 10 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 50%, ATH 50% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
PIT by 0.5
Expected score
PIT 5.2 – 4.7 ATH
Expected total
9.9
PiratesThe matchupAthletics
+101Our fair odds−101
5.2Expected runs4.7
−0.03Power rating−0.09
5.0Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game5.2
8.7Hits / game8.5
1.18Home runs / game1.30
3.9Walks drawn / game3.7
36−36Season record35−36
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10150%+10548.7%———
ATHAthletics−10150%−13156.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.5
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.5 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byATH wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more41%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ATH
Jun 14 vs MIA
last game
Jun 14 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
PIT·ATH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.0
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.2
36−36
season record
35−36
20−19
home record
15−19
16−17
away record
20−17
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.5
1.18
home runs / game
1.30
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.62
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

PIT · ATH · 82 days
Pittsburgh PiratesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATH 6−3
Sep 21, 2025at PITPIT 11 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at PITATH 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at ATHATH 4 − 0
Apr 30, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at PITATH 9 − 5
Jun 6, 2023at PITATH 11 − 2
Jun 5, 2023at PITPIT 5 − 4

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L