bayesRatings

Marlins at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, Jun 14 · 11:15 AM CT · PNC Park · Final MIA 4 – PIT 2
← MLB / Jun 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA020000020492
PIT000100001280
Team box
MIA·PIT
9
hits
8
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
12
strikeouts
12
151
pitches thrown
168
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-3111
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4111
Joe MackMIA1-3111
Jake MangumPIT2-4001
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4001
Kyle StowersMIA1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Meyer (W)MIA6.06139
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.01102
Paul Skenes (L)PIT6.042110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · MIA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Jun 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.6 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
8.9
MarlinsThe matchupPirates
+109Our fair odds−109
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating−0.02
4.3Runs / game5.0
4.3Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game8.7
0.82Home runs / game1.18
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
35−36Season record36−35
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10948%+12943.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10952%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PIT
Jun 13 at PIT
last game
Jun 13 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
MIA·PIT
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.3
runs / game
5.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.8
35−36
season record
36−35
23−16
home record
20−18
12−20
away record
16−17
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.7
0.82
home runs / game
1.18
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.66
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

MIA · PIT · 81 days
Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Jun 13at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jun 12at PITMIA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PITMIA 3 − 2
Jun 9, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Mar 28, 2025at MIAPIT 4 − 3
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 11, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 1

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jun 13at PIT2 − 3L
Jun 12at PIT8 − 3W
Jun 11vs ARI2 − 0W
Jun 10vs ARI8 − 0W
Jun 9vs ARI10 − 6W
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L