bayesRatings

Dodgers at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final LAD 12 – PIT 3
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010001100012150
PIT200000001352
Team box
LAD·PIT
15
hits
5
1
home runs
2
9
walks
2
9
strikeouts
12
158
pitches thrown
216
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD1-5113
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4211
Max MuncyLAD3-3101
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-4111
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4201
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric LauerLAD5.23205
Will Klein (W)LAD1.10003
Paul SkenesPIT6.06227
Wilber Dotel (L)PIT0.05610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +10
LAD +10
123456789
largest lead: PIT 2 · LAD 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 58%, PIT 42% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
LAD by 1.3
Expected score
LAD 5.1 – 3.8 PIT
Expected total
8.8
DodgersThe matchupPirates
−139Our fair odds+139
5.1Expected runs3.8
+0.38Power rating−0.01
5.2Runs / game5.0
3.2Allowed / game4.6
8.8Hits / game8.7
1.36Home runs / game1.14
3.9Walks drawn / game4.0
42−24Season record34−32
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · PIT chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13958%−10350.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13942%−11653.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.3 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byPIT wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more48%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 7 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·PIT
Jun 7 vs LAA
last game
Jun 7 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
LAD·PIT
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.2
runs / game
5.0
3.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
42−24
season record
34−32
22−12
home record
18−15
20−12
away record
16−17
L1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.7
1.36
home runs / game
1.14
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.33
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

LAD · PIT · 76 days
Los Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
Sep 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 7
Apr 27, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at LADPIT 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 5
Aug 10, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 1
Aug 9, 2024at LADLAD 9 − 5
Jun 6, 2024at PITLAD 11 − 7

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L
Jun 2at HOU10 − 6W
May 31vs MIN9 − 3W
May 30vs MIN10 − 9W
May 29vs MIN6 − 5W
May 28vs CHC2 − 7L