bayesRatings

Pirates at Braves

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final PIT 3 – ATL 6
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT003000000340
ATL01203000690
Team box
PIT·ATL
4
hits
9
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
10
158
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mauricio DubonATL2-4213
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-4001
Marcell OzunaPIT2-4001
Matt OlsonATL2-5100
Austin RileyATL1-3101
Michael Harris IIATL2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Keller (L)PIT4.27634
Martin Perez (W)ATL5.03325
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 3 · PIT 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
8.6
PiratesThe matchupBraves
+128Our fair odds−128
3.9Expected runs4.6
+0.01Power rating+0.20
5.2Runs / game5.2
4.6Allowed / game3.5
8.9Hits / game8.8
1.17Home runs / game1.40
4.0Walks drawn / game3.1
34−29Season record42−21
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12844%+12444.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12856%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ATL
Jun 4 at HOU
last game
Jun 4 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
PIT·ATL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
5.2
runs / game
5.2
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.5
34−29
season record
42−21
18−15
home record
19−11
16−14
away record
23−10
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
8.8
1.17
home runs / game
1.40
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.62
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

PIT · ATL · 72 days
Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Sep 28, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at ATLPIT 3 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at ATLPIT 9 − 3
May 11, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 3
May 10, 2025at PITATL 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jun 30, 2024at ATLPIT 4 − 2
Jun 29, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2024at ATLATL 6 − 1
May 26, 2024at PITATL 8 − 1

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L
Jun 2at HOU10 − 6W
May 31vs MIN9 − 3W
May 30vs MIN10 − 9W
May 29vs MIN6 − 5W
May 28vs CHC2 − 7L
May 27vs CHC4 − 10L
May 26vs CHC12 − 1W
May 25vs CHC2 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 4vs TOR2 − 7L
Jun 3vs TOR7 − 3W
Jun 2vs TOR4 − 3W
May 31at CIN4 − 6L
May 30at CIN5 − 2W
May 29at CIN8 − 3W
May 28at BOS10 − 2W
May 27at BOS0 − 8L
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L