bayesRatings

Marlins at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:05 PM CT · PNC Park · Final MIA 2 – PIT 3
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA001001000270
PIT10100001380
Team box
MIA·PIT
7
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
10
strikeouts
11
146
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4001
Otto LopezMIA2-3000
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4001
Liam HicksMIA1-5001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4001
Tyler CallihanPIT2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lake BacharMIA2.01114
Anthony Bender (L)MIA1.02112
Bubba ChandlerPIT5.23216
Yohan Ramirez (W)PIT1.01013
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.5 – 4.4 MIA
Expected total
8.9
MarlinsThe matchupPirates
+107Our fair odds−107
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.03
4.3Runs / game5.1
4.4Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game8.7
0.83Home runs / game1.20
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
35−35Season record35−35
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10748%−10350.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10752%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIALake Bachar RP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 8 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PIT
Jun 12 at PIT
last game
Jun 12 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
MIA·PIT
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.3
runs / game
5.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
35−35
season record
35−35
23−16
home record
19−18
12−19
away record
16−17
W6
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.7
0.83
home runs / game
1.20
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.67
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

MIA · PIT · 80 days
Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Jun 12at PITMIA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PITMIA 3 − 2
Jun 9, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Mar 28, 2025at MIAPIT 4 − 3
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 11, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 1
Sep 10, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 4

MIA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Jun 12at PIT8 − 3W
Jun 11vs ARI2 − 0W
Jun 10vs ARI8 − 0W
Jun 9vs ARI10 − 6W
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L
Jun 2at HOU10 − 6W