bayesRatings

Marlins at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final MIA 8 – PIT 3
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0000204208110
PIT001010010361
Team box
MIA·PIT
11
hits
6
1
home runs
2
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
120
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA3-4312
Endy RodriguezPIT2-4211
Brandon LowePIT1-4111
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4101
Kyle StowersMIA2-4101
Owen CaissieMIA1-5002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA8.05317
Braxton AshcraftPIT5.05224
Wilber Dotel (L)PIT1.24432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · MIA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.6 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
8.9
MarlinsThe matchupPirates
+109Our fair odds−109
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating−0.02
4.3Runs / game5.1
4.4Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game8.8
0.83Home runs / game1.19
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
34−35Season record35−34
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10948%+11945.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 5.49 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PIT
Jun 11 vs ARI
last game
Jun 11 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
MIA·PIT
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.3
runs / game
5.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
34−35
season record
35−34
23−16
home record
19−17
11−19
away record
16−17
W5
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.8
0.83
home runs / game
1.19
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.68
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

MIA · PIT · 79 days
Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Jun 11, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PITMIA 3 − 2
Jun 9, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Mar 28, 2025at MIAPIT 4 − 3
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 11, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 1
Sep 10, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 4
Sep 9, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 2

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Jun 11vs ARI2 − 0W
Jun 10vs ARI8 − 0W
Jun 9vs ARI10 − 6W
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L
Jun 2at HOU10 − 6W
May 31vs MIN9 − 3W