bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ARI 0 – MIA 8
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000000060
MIA001610008100
Team box
ARI·MIA
6
hits
10
0
home runs
2
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
4
121
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle StowersMIA1-3113
Owen CaissieMIA1-3113
Otto LopezMIA2-5102
Gabriel MorenoARI2-3000
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4200
Liam HicksMIA2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryne Nelson (L)ARI4.08712
Ryan GustoMIA4.03014
William Kempner (W)MIA2.00023

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +8
ARI +8
123456789
largest lead: MIA 8 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 50%, MIA 50% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.9 – 4.5 MIA
Expected total
9.4
DiamondbacksThe matchupMarlins
−101Our fair odds+101
4.9Expected runs4.5
+0.00Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.1
0.91Home runs / game0.82
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
34−32Season record32−35
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10150%−11653.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byMIA wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more40%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 13.11 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·MIA
Jun 9 at MIA
last game
Jun 9 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
ARI·MIA
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
34−32
season record
32−35
21−14
home record
21−16
13−18
away record
11−19
L1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.1
0.91
home runs / game
0.82
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.38
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

ARI · MIA · 77 days
Arizona DiamondbacksMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jun 9at MIAMIA 10 − 6
Jun 29, 2025at ARIMIA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at ARIMIA 8 − 7
Jun 27, 2025at ARIMIA 9 − 8
Apr 17, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at MIAARI 10 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at MIAARI 10 − 8
Aug 20, 2024at MIAARI 3 − 1
Aug 19, 2024at MIAARI 9 − 6

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 9vs ARI10 − 6W
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L