bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ARI 6 – MIA 10
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI1001001306100
MIA1110030410150
Team box
ARI·MIA
10
hits
15
2
home runs
0
8
walks
3
11
strikeouts
4
150
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI3-5003
Corbin CarrollARI1-5112
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-3102
Otto LopezMIA3-5401
Joe MackMIA4-4300
Gabriel MorenoARI1-3111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac GallenARI5.19413
Brandyn Garcia (L)ARI0.22410
Max MeyerMIA5.17225
Pete Fairbanks (W)MIA1.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
ARI +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 4 · ARI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 51%, MIA 49% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
ARI by 0.5
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.2
DiamondbacksThe matchupMarlins
−103Our fair odds+103
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.01Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.0
0.89Home runs / game0.83
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
34−31Season record31−35
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10351%+12444.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10349%−14859.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.5 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byMIA wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more41%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.04 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·MIA
Jun 7 vs WSH
last game
Jun 7 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
ARI·MIA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
34−31
season record
31−35
21−14
home record
20−16
13−17
away record
11−19
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.0
0.89
home runs / game
0.83
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.38
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

ARI · MIA · 76 days
Arizona DiamondbacksMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jun 29, 2025at ARIMIA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at ARIMIA 8 − 7
Jun 27, 2025at ARIMIA 9 − 8
Apr 17, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at MIAARI 10 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at MIAARI 10 − 8
Aug 20, 2024at MIAARI 3 − 1
Aug 19, 2024at MIAARI 9 − 6
May 26, 2024at ARIMIA 3 − 1

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L
May 27at TOR1 − 2L