bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Marlins

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 12:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ARI 0 – MIA 2
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000000030
MIA10010000251
Team box
ARI·MIA
3
hits
5
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
13
strikeouts
4
105
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-3001
Otto LopezMIA2-4100
Jakob MarseeMIA1-2001
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Jorge BarrosaARI1-3000
LuJames GrooverARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI6.04221
Tyler Phillips (W)MIA5.02025
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 2 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, MIA 51% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.6 MIA
Expected total
9.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupMarlins
+103Our fair odds−103
4.8Expected runs4.6
−0.01Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.1
0.90Home runs / game0.84
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
34−33Season record33−35
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10349%+10548.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10351%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byMIA wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·MIA
Jun 10 at MIA
last game
Jun 10 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
ARI·MIA
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
34−33
season record
33−35
21−14
home record
22−16
13−19
away record
11−19
L2
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.1
0.90
home runs / game
0.84
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.37
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

ARI · MIA · 78 days
Arizona DiamondbacksMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Jun 10at MIAMIA 8 − 0
Jun 9at MIAMIA 10 − 6
Jun 29, 2025at ARIMIA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at ARIMIA 8 − 7
Jun 27, 2025at ARIMIA 9 − 8
Apr 17, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at MIAARI 10 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at MIAARI 10 − 8
Aug 20, 2024at MIAARI 3 − 1

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 10vs ARI8 − 0W
Jun 9vs ARI10 − 6W
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L