bayesRatings

Dodgers at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final LAD 8 – PIT 6
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0032002108100
PIT0000400206120
Team box
LAD·PIT
10
hits
12
1
home runs
2
8
walks
3
7
strikeouts
10
150
pitches thrown
209
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael Flores Jr.PIT2-3112
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-2211
Brandon LowePIT1-4112
Kyle TuckerLAD1-5102
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-5001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin WrobleskiLAD4.26421
Jack Dreyer (W)LAD1.00002
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.10003
Mitch Keller (L)PIT4.07543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · LAD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 58%, PIT 42% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 PIT
Expected total
9.1
DodgersThe matchupPirates
−139Our fair odds+139
5.3Expected runs3.8
+0.38Power rating−0.01
5.4Runs / game5.1
3.3Allowed / game4.8
8.9Hits / game8.7
1.37Home runs / game1.18
4.0Walks drawn / game4.0
43−25Season record35−33
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · PIT chance
Our model fair58.2%41.8%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13958%−18364.6%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13942%+15239.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byPIT wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 8.59 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·PIT
Jun 10 at PIT
last game
Jun 10 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
LAD·PIT
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.4
runs / game
5.1
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.8
43−25
season record
35−33
22−12
home record
19−16
21−13
away record
16−17
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
8.7
1.37
home runs / game
1.18
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.34
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

LAD · PIT · 78 days
Los Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Jun 10at PITPIT 9 − 8
Jun 9at PITLAD 12 − 3
Sep 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 7
Apr 27, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at LADPIT 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 5
Aug 10, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 1

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L
Jun 9at PIT12 − 3W
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 4at HOU5 − 1W
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L
Jun 2at HOU10 − 6W
May 31vs MIN9 − 3W
May 30vs MIN10 − 9W