bayesRatings

Pirates at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final PIT 6 – ATH 5
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT0001022016121
ATH400001000570
Team box
PIT·ATH
12
hits
7
3
home runs
1
3
walks
6
9
strikeouts
13
157
pitches thrown
158
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT4-5323
Zack GelofATH2-3211
Brandon LowePIT1-5111
Ryan O'HearnPIT3-5100
Lawrence ButlerATH1-3001
Tyler CallihanPIT2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch KellerPIT5.14147
Mason Montgomery (W)PIT1.00012
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.02002
Jack PerkinsATH5.06326
Elvis Alvarado (L)ATH1.01100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, ATH 51% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 5.2 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.0
PiratesThe matchupAthletics
+104Our fair odds−104
5.2Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating−0.08
4.9Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game5.2
8.7Hits / game8.6
1.18Home runs / game1.32
3.9Walks drawn / game3.7
36−37Season record36−36
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10449%+11945.7%———
ATHAthletics−10451%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byATH wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more41%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 12.79 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ATH
Jun 15 at ATH
last game
Jun 15 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
PIT·ATH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.9
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.2
36−37
season record
36−36
20−19
home record
16−19
16−18
away record
20−17
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.6
1.18
home runs / game
1.32
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.64
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

PIT · ATH · 83 days
Pittsburgh PiratesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Jun 15at ATHATH 11 − 2
Sep 21, 2025at PITPIT 11 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at PITATH 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at ATHATH 4 − 0
Apr 30, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at PITATH 9 − 5
Jun 6, 2023at PITATH 11 − 2
Jun 5, 2023at PITPIT 5 − 4

PIT · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L
Jun 5at ATL3 − 6L

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L