bayesRatings

Pirates at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final PIT 3 – COL 4
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000030370
COL00110002491
Team box
PIT·COL
7
hits
9
0
home runs
1
1
walks
2
9
strikeouts
2
104
pitches thrown
110
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4111
Braxton FulfordCOL1-1002
Jared TrioloPIT2-4101
Willi CastroCOL1-3001
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-4100
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba ChandlerPIT6.06221
Mason Montgomery (L)PIT0.23201
Kyle FreelandCOL7.14208
Antonio Senzatela (W)COL1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · PIT 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 61%, COL 39% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
PIT by 1.7
Expected score
PIT 6.5 – 4.8 COL
Expected total
11.3
PiratesThe matchupRockies
−155Our fair odds+155
6.5Expected runs4.8
−0.03Power rating−0.54
5.1Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game5.8
8.8Hits / game8.6
1.21Home runs / game1.08
3.9Walks drawn / game3.1
38−37Season record28−47
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.9%39.1%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−15561%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15539%+11945.7%———
SpreadPIT by 1.7
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1.7our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.7 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 18 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 17 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 16 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCOL wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more51%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 7.71 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·COL
Jun 17 at ATH
last game
Jun 17 at CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
PIT·COL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
5.1
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.8
38−37
season record
28−47
20−19
home record
14−20
18−18
away record
14−27
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
8.6
1.21
home runs / game
1.08
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.65
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

PIT · COL · 86 days
Pittsburgh PiratesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 14at PITPIT 7 − 2
May 13at PITCOL 10 − 4
May 12at PITPIT 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 0
Aug 3, 2025at COLPIT 9 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at COLCOL 17 − 16
Jun 16, 2024at COLPIT 8 − 2

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L