bayesRatings

Pirates at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final PIT 12 – ATH 4
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT32020050012161
ATH000002101460
Team box
PIT·ATH
16
hits
6
2
home runs
2
4
walks
3
10
strikeouts
12
133
pitches thrown
176
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT3-5116
Marcell OzunaPIT2-5111
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5102
Zack GelofATH1-4111
Henry BolteATH1-4111
Jacob WilsonATH1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT6.04137
Aaron Civale (L)ATH3.09622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +10
PIT +10
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · PIT 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, ATH 51% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 5.2 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.0
PiratesThe matchupAthletics
+103Our fair odds−103
5.2Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating−0.08
5.0Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game5.2
8.7Hits / game8.6
1.20Home runs / game1.32
3.9Walks drawn / game3.7
37−37Season record36−37
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10349%−13757.7%———
ATHAthletics−10351%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byATH wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more41%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ATH
Jun 16 at ATH
last game
Jun 16 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
PIT·ATH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.0
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.2
37−37
season record
36−37
20−19
home record
16−20
17−18
away record
20−17
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.6
1.20
home runs / game
1.32
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.65
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

PIT · ATH · 84 days
Pittsburgh PiratesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Jun 16at ATHPIT 6 − 5
Jun 15at ATHATH 11 − 2
Sep 21, 2025at PITPIT 11 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at PITATH 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at ATHATH 4 − 0
Apr 30, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at PITATH 9 − 5
Jun 6, 2023at PITATH 11 − 2

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 7at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 6at ATL3 − 6L

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 16vs PIT5 − 6L
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L