bayesRatings

Orioles at Mariners

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final BAL 5 – SEA 3
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL0020011015102
SEA000100002370
Team box
BAL·SEA
10
hits
7
2
home runs
2
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
14
118
pitches thrown
147
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-3112
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4112
Jackson HollidayBAL1-3211
Cole YoungSEA1-4111
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-3100
Leody TaverasBAL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (W)BAL7.251212
George Kirby (L)SEA6.08305

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · BAL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, SEA 55% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.6
OriolesThe matchupMariners
+124Our fair odds−124
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.08Power rating+0.06
4.6Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.16Home runs / game1.27
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
34−40Season record38−36
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12445%+10947.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12455%−13156.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·SEA
Jun 16 at SEA
last game
Jun 16 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
BAL·SEA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.6
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
34−40
season record
38−36
22−19
home record
20−16
12−21
away record
18−20
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.16
home runs / game
1.27
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.55
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

BAL · SEA · 84 days
Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Jun 16at SEASEA 3 − 1
Jun 11at BALBAL 7 − 5
Jun 10at BALBAL 7 − 2
Jun 9at BALSEA 6 − 5
Jun 8at BALSEA 6 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 3
Aug 12, 2025at BALSEA 1 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at SEABAL 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at SEABAL 3 − 2

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 16at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 14vs SD2 − 5L
Jun 13vs SD3 − 9L
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jun 9vs SEA5 − 6L
Jun 8vs SEA3 − 6L
Jun 7at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 16vs BAL3 − 1W
Jun 14at WSH1 − 10L
Jun 13at WSH3 − 8L
Jun 12at WSH10 − 2W
Jun 11at BAL5 − 7L
Jun 10at BAL2 − 7L
Jun 9at BAL6 − 5W
Jun 8at BAL6 − 3W
Jun 7at DET4 − 5L
Jun 6at DET4 − 0W