bayesRatings

Pirates at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Jun 20 · 8:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final PIT 1 – COL 2
← MLB / Jun 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100000000160
COL10100000250
Team box
PIT·COL
6
hits
5
1
home runs
1
1
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
136
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4211
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-4111
TJ RumfieldCOL1-2001
Brandon LowePIT2-4000
Sterlin ThompsonCOL1-3000
Cole CarriggCOL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (L)PIT6.04228
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL6.04105
Jaden Hill (S)COL0.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 60%, COL 40% · Updated Jun 20

Expected margin
PIT by 1.6
Expected score
PIT 6.4 – 4.8 COL
Expected total
11.2
PiratesThe matchupRockies
−151Our fair odds+151
6.4Expected runs4.8
−0.03Power rating−0.53
5.0Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game5.8
8.8Hits / game8.6
1.20Home runs / game1.08
3.8Walks drawn / game3.1
38−38Season record29−47
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.1%39.9%
Kalshi68.5%35.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−15160%−21868.5%———
COLColorado Rockies+15140%+18135.6%———
SpreadPIT by 1.6
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.6 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 18 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 17 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 16 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCOL wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more50%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 24 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·COL
Jun 19 at COL
last game
Jun 19 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
PIT·COL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
5.0
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.8
38−38
season record
29−47
20−19
home record
15−20
18−19
away record
14−27
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.6
1.20
home runs / game
1.08
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.64
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

PIT · COL · 87 days
Pittsburgh PiratesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Jun 19at COLCOL 4 − 3
May 14at PITPIT 7 − 2
May 13at PITCOL 10 − 4
May 12at PITPIT 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 0
Aug 3, 2025at COLPIT 9 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at COLCOL 17 − 16

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W
Jun 9vs LAD3 − 12L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W