bayesRatings

Pirates at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final PIT 8 – COL 6
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT0002123008131
COL010000032681
Team box
PIT·COL
13
hits
8
2
home runs
1
1
walks
4
6
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5213
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4113
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4212
Jake MangumPIT3-4101
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5100
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared JonesPIT3.01123
Yohan Ramirez (W)PIT2.00013
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL5.17415

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +7
PIT +7
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · PIT 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 60%, COL 40% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
PIT by 1.6
Expected score
PIT 6.3 – 4.7 COL
Expected total
11.0
PiratesThe matchupRockies
−148Our fair odds+148
6.3Expected runs4.7
−0.04Power rating−0.51
5.0Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game5.7
8.8Hits / game8.5
1.19Home runs / game1.08
3.8Walks drawn / game3.1
38−39Season record30−47
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−14860%−14859.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14840%+12444.7%———
SpreadPIT by 1.6
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.6 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 17 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 16 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCOL wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more50%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 12 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·COL
Jun 20 at COL
last game
Jun 20 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
PIT·COL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.51
5.0
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
38−39
season record
30−47
20−19
home record
16−20
18−20
away record
14−27
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.5
1.19
home runs / game
1.08
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.64
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

PIT · COL · 88 days
Pittsburgh PiratesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Jun 20at COLCOL 2 − 1
Jun 19at COLCOL 4 − 3
May 14at PITPIT 7 − 2
May 13at PITCOL 10 − 4
May 12at PITPIT 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 0
Aug 3, 2025at COLPIT 9 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 5

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 20at COL1 − 2L
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W
Jun 12vs MIA3 − 8L
Jun 11vs LAD6 − 8L
Jun 10vs LAD9 − 8W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W