bayesRatings

Mariners at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final SEA 5 – CLE 6
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0120010015131
CLE000010056122
Team box
SEA·CLE
13
hits
12
0
home runs
0
4
walks
6
9
strikeouts
7
160
pitches thrown
178
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rhys HoskinsCLE2-2002
Chase DeLauterCLE2-5102
Daniel SchneemannCLE2-2101
Josh NaylorSEA2-4101
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4101
Kahlil WatsonCLE2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson HancockSEA5.25136
Michael Rucker (L)SEA0.12420
Gavin WilliamsCLE5.06236
Matt Festa (W)CLE1.12010
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · SEA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.7 – 3.5 SEA
Expected total
7.2
MarinersThe matchupGuardians
+106Our fair odds−106
3.5Expected runs3.7
+0.03Power rating+0.02
4.0Runs / game3.9
4.0Allowed / game4.0
7.6Hits / game7.4
1.21Home runs / game0.90
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
42−42Season record43−40
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10648%+10149.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10652%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.2
Over7.2our total————
Under7.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run33%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.2 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 7.540%
Total over 9.523%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CLE
Jun 27 at CLE
last game
Jun 27 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
SEA·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.0
runs / game
3.9
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
42−42
season record
43−40
22−19
home record
20−18
20−23
away record
23−22
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
7.4
1.21
home runs / game
0.90
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.48
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

SEA · CLE · 95 days
Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jun 27at CLECLE 4 − 3
Jun 26at CLESEA 3 − 1
Mar 29at SEASEA 8 − 0
Mar 28at SEACLE 6 − 5
Mar 27at SEASEA 5 − 1
Mar 26at SEACLE 6 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at CLESEA 4 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 15, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 20vs BOS1 − 5L
Jun 19vs BOS2 − 6L
Jun 18vs BAL3 − 0W
Jun 17vs BAL3 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 27vs SEA4 − 3W
Jun 26vs SEA1 − 3L
Jun 24at CHW4 − 3W
Jun 23at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 22at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L
Jun 20at HOU8 − 1W
Jun 19at HOU3 − 9L
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L