bayesRatings

Guardians at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CLE 4 – CHW 3
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CLE0000020101480
CHW00000010203102
Team box
CLE·CHW
8
hits
10
0
home runs
2
6
walks
4
12
strikeouts
5
180
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kahlil WatsonCLE2-4003
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-4112
Randal GrichukCHW1-2111
Miguel VargasCHW2-4000
Jacob GonzalezCHW2-4000
Steven KwanCLE2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner BibeeCLE6.03013
Shawn Armstrong (W)CLE1.10020
Chris MurphyCHW1.10002
Grant Taylor (L)CHW1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
CLE +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHW 0 · CLE 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, CHW 49% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.2 – 4.2 CLE
Expected total
8.3
GuardiansThe matchupWhite Sox
−103Our fair odds+103
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating−0.08
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.5Hits / game7.8
0.94Home runs / game1.38
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
41−39Season record41−37
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHW chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10351%−11252.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10349%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland GuardiansPKour margin————
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more25%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHWChris Murphy RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHW
Jun 23 at CHW
last game
Jun 23 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
CLE·CHW
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
41−39
season record
41−37
19−17
home record
26−12
22−22
away record
15−25
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
7.8
0.94
home runs / game
1.38
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.46
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

CLE · CHW · 91 days
Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 3−7
Jun 23at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 22at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 0
Aug 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 4
Aug 9, 2025at CHWCLE 3 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at CHWCLE 9 − 5
Jul 13, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 5
Jul 12, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 2

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 23at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 22at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L
Jun 20at HOU8 − 1W
Jun 19at HOU3 − 9L
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 23vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L
Jun 18at NYY5 − 1W
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L