bayesRatings

Guardians at White Sox

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CLE 5 – CHW 6
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000302580
CHW0110011026100
Team box
CLE·CHW
8
hits
10
0
home runs
1
6
walks
2
15
strikeouts
13
153
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4103
Randal GrichukCHW1-2111
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-3201
Brayan RocchioCLE3-5000
Kahlil WatsonCLE1-1002
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin WilliamsCLE5.05218
Cade Smith (L)CLE1.22213
Anthony KayCHW6.03028
Chris Murphy (W)CHW0.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 3 · CLE 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, CHW 49% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
8.3
GuardiansThe matchupWhite Sox
−106Our fair odds+106
4.2Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating−0.09
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.5Hits / game7.9
0.95Home runs / game1.39
3.8Walks drawn / game3.5
41−37Season record39−37
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHW chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10651%−11252.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10649%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCHW wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.63 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHW
Jun 21 at HOU
last game
Jun 21 at DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
CLE·CHW
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
41−37
season record
39−37
19−17
home record
24−12
22−20
away record
15−25
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
7.9
0.95
home runs / game
1.39
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.46
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CLE · CHW · 89 days
Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 2−8
Sep 14, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 0
Aug 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 4
Aug 9, 2025at CHWCLE 3 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at CHWCLE 9 − 5
Jul 13, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 5
Jul 12, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 2
Jul 11, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at CHWCLE 4 − 2

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L
Jun 20at HOU8 − 1W
Jun 19at HOU3 − 9L
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L
Jun 18at NYY5 − 1W
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W