bayesRatings

White Sox at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final CHW 5 – NYY 10
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0030000115111
NYY2200501010130
Team box
CHW·NYY
11
hits
13
3
home runs
3
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
165
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4224
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-5113
Cody BellingerNYY3-4212
Sam AntonacciCHW1-4111
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-5111
Edgar QueroCHW3-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Kay (L)CHW4.06412
Carlos Rodon (W)NYY5.07317

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
CHW +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 7 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 38%, NYY 62% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
NYY by 1.3
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
9.1
White SoxThe matchupYankees
+161Our fair odds−161
3.9Expected runs5.2
−0.08Power rating+0.32
4.7Runs / game5.2
4.7Allowed / game3.6
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.37Home runs / game1.49
3.6Walks drawn / game4.3
38−33Season record44−27
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · NYY chance
Our model fair38.4%61.6%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+16138%+14640.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−16162%−17563.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.3
CHWChicago White Sox+1.3our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.3 expected
Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more36%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·NYY
Jun 16 at NYY
last game
Jun 16 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
CHW·NYY
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
4.7
runs / game
5.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.6
38−33
season record
44−27
24−12
home record
20−12
14−21
away record
24−15
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.37
home runs / game
1.49
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.49
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CHW · NYY · 84 days
Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 9−1
Jun 16at NYYNYY 12 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Sep 24, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CHWNYY 5 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 4
Aug 14, 2024at CHWNYY 10 − 2
Aug 13, 2024at CHWNYY 4 − 1

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jun 9vs ATL6 − 5W
Jun 7at PHI5 − 9L
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W