bayesRatings

White Sox at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final CHW 2 – NYY 12
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW100001000241
NYY0146000112160
Team box
CHW·NYY
4
hits
16
1
home runs
4
2
walks
6
9
strikeouts
10
184
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-5112
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4112
Cody BellingerNYY3-4202
Spencer JonesNYY1-3212
Ben RiceNYY1-4212
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-2111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (L)CHW3.18934
Gerrit Cole (W)NYY6.03226
Ryan Yarbrough (S)NYY3.01003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +10
CHW +10
123456789
largest lead: NYY 10 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
NYY by 1.2
Expected score
NYY 5.1 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
9.0
White SoxThe matchupYankees
+156Our fair odds−156
3.9Expected runs5.1
−0.07Power rating+0.30
4.8Runs / game5.1
4.6Allowed / game3.6
8.0Hits / game8.0
1.37Home runs / game1.46
3.6Walks drawn / game4.3
38−32Season record43−27
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15639%+12444.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15661%−14859.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.2
CHWChicago White Sox+1.2our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.2 expected
Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more46%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 13 Kstarted
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·NYY
Jun 14 vs LAD
last game
Jun 14 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
CHW·NYY
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
4.8
runs / game
5.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.6
38−32
season record
43−27
24−12
home record
19−12
14−20
away record
24−15
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.0
1.37
home runs / game
1.46
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.49
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CHW · NYY · 83 days
Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Sep 25, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Sep 24, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CHWNYY 5 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 4
Aug 14, 2024at CHWNYY 10 − 2
Aug 13, 2024at CHWNYY 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2024at CHWCHW 12 − 2

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jun 9vs ATL6 − 5W
Jun 7at PHI5 − 9L
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L