bayesRatings

Braves at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final ATL 5 – CHW 6
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATL20200000015120
CHW0021001002692
Team box
ATL·CHW
12
hits
9
2
home runs
2
3
walks
5
6
strikeouts
5
159
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL2-4223
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-5113
Miguel VargasCHW1-4212
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-5200
Michael Harris IIATL3-5100
Jacob GonzalezCHW2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL3.24322
Raisel Iglesias (L)ATL1.21102
Brandon EisertCHW0.23211
Grant Taylor (W)CHW2.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
ATL +4
12345678910
largest lead: CHW 1 · ATL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 57%, CHW 43% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 5.1 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
9.1
BravesThe matchupWhite Sox
−131Our fair odds+131
5.1Expected runs4.0
+0.23Power rating−0.10
5.2Runs / game4.8
3.5Allowed / game4.6
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.36Home runs / game1.37
3.1Walks drawn / game3.7
45−21Season record34−31
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CHW chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−13157%−15460.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+13143%+12943.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.1
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.1 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCHW wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more46%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 19 Kstarted
CHWBrandon Eisert RP · last 3 starts: 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CHW
Jun 7 vs PIT
last game
Jun 7 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
ATL·CHW
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.2
runs / game
4.8
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
45−21
season record
34−31
22−11
home record
20−11
23−10
away record
14−20
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.36
home runs / game
1.37
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.42
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ATL · CHW · 76 days
Atlanta BravesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHW 5−4
Aug 20, 2025at ATLATL 1 − 0
Aug 19, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 10
Aug 18, 2025at ATLCHW 13 − 9
Jun 27, 2024at CHWCHW 1 − 0
Apr 2, 2024at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2024at CHWATL 9 − 0
Jul 16, 2023at ATLCHW 8 − 1
Jul 15, 2023at ATLCHW 6 − 5
Jul 14, 2023at ATLATL 9 − 0

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 5vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 4vs TOR2 − 7L
Jun 3vs TOR7 − 3W
Jun 2vs TOR4 − 3W
May 31at CIN4 − 6L
May 30at CIN5 − 2W
May 29at CIN8 − 3W
May 28at BOS10 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 7at PHI5 − 9L
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W