bayesRatings

Dodgers at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final LAD 7 – CHW 1
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD3010010207101
CHW000000001110
Team box
LAD·CHW
10
hits
1
3
home runs
1
10
walks
0
11
strikeouts
7
117
pitches thrown
188
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD3-3224
Tristan PetersCHW1-3111
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-3211
Mookie BettsLAD3-5300
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3002
Santiago EspinalLAD1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD8.11107
Sean Burke (L)CHW4.06456

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +7
LAD +7
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · LAD 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 59%, CHW 41% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.4 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
9.3
DodgersThe matchupWhite Sox
−143Our fair odds+143
5.4Expected runs3.9
+0.36Power rating−0.07
5.4Runs / game4.8
3.4Allowed / game4.6
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.34Home runs / game1.35
4.0Walks drawn / game3.7
44−26Season record37−31
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CHW chance
Our model fair58.8%41.2%
Kalshi67.6%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14359%−20867.6%———
CHWChicago White Sox+14341%+17336.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCHW wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CHW
Jun 12 at CHW
last game
Jun 12 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
LAD·CHW
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.4
runs / game
4.8
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
44−26
season record
37−31
22−12
home record
23−11
22−14
away record
14−20
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.34
home runs / game
1.35
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.33
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

LAD · CHW · 80 days
Los Angeles DodgersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 2−8
Jun 12at CHWCHW 8 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 1
Jun 26, 2024at CHWLAD 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2024at CHWLAD 4 − 3
Jun 24, 2024at CHWLAD 3 − 0
Jun 15, 2023at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jun 14, 2023at LADCHW 8 − 4
Jun 13, 2023at LADLAD 5 − 1

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 12at CHW2 − 8L
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L
Jun 9at PIT12 − 3W
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jun 9vs ATL6 − 5W
Jun 7at PHI5 − 9L
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W