bayesRatings

Dodgers at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final LAD 2 – CHW 8
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD020000000240
CHW100070008100
Team box
LAD·CHW
4
hits
10
0
home runs
1
1
walks
7
9
strikeouts
7
169
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase MeidrothCHW3-3102
Miguel VargasCHW3-4101
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-4111
Tristan PetersCHW1-3102
Santiago EspinalLAD1-3002
Sam AntonacciCHW1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki Sasaki (L)LAD4.17734
Anthony Kay (W)CHW5.04217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: CHW 6 · LAD 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 60%, CHW 40% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
LAD by 1.7
Expected score
LAD 5.5 – 3.8 CHW
Expected total
9.3
DodgersThe matchupWhite Sox
−149Our fair odds+149
5.5Expected runs3.8
+0.39Power rating−0.08
5.4Runs / game4.7
3.3Allowed / game4.6
8.9Hits / game8.1
1.36Home runs / game1.36
4.1Walks drawn / game3.6
44−25Season record36−31
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CHW chance
Our model fair59.9%40.1%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14960%−15460.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+14940%+12943.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.7
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.7our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.7 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCHW wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more51%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more40%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CHW
Jun 11 at PIT
last game
Jun 10 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
LAD·CHW
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.4
runs / game
4.7
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
44−25
season record
36−31
22−12
home record
22−11
22−13
away record
14−20
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
8.1
1.36
home runs / game
1.36
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.33
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

LAD · CHW · 79 days
Los Angeles DodgersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
Jul 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 1
Jun 26, 2024at CHWLAD 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2024at CHWLAD 4 − 3
Jun 24, 2024at CHWLAD 3 − 0
Jun 15, 2023at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jun 14, 2023at LADCHW 8 − 4
Jun 13, 2023at LADLAD 5 − 1
Jun 9, 2022at CHWLAD 11 − 9

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L
Jun 9at PIT12 − 3W
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jun 9vs ATL6 − 5W
Jun 7at PHI5 − 9L
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W