bayesRatings

White Sox at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, Jun 18 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final CHW 5 – NYY 1
← MLB / Jun 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW010000040561
NYY001000000160
Team box
CHW·NYY
6
hits
6
2
home runs
1
1
walks
1
11
strikeouts
10
115
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-1114
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-3111
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3111
Luisangel AcunaCHW1-2000
Chase MeidrothCHW1-4000
Sam AntonacciCHW1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan HudsonCHW1.21002
Sean Burke (W)CHW7.15118
Ryan WeathersNYY6.13118
Fernando Cruz (L)NYY0.21101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
CHW +4
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · CHW 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 38%, NYY 62% · Updated Jun 18

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.3 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
9.2
White SoxThe matchupYankees
+164Our fair odds−164
3.9Expected runs5.3
−0.09Power rating+0.34
4.7Runs / game5.3
4.8Allowed / game3.6
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.39Home runs / game1.51
3.6Walks drawn / game4.3
38−34Season record45−27
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · NYY chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshi40.7%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+16438%+14640.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−16462%−18364.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
CHWChicago White Sox+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more37%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWBryan Hudson RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 8.47 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·NYY
Jun 17 at NYY
last game
Jun 17 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
CHW·NYY
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.7
runs / game
5.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.6
38−34
season record
45−27
24−12
home record
21−12
14−22
away record
24−15
L2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.39
home runs / game
1.51
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.50
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHW · NYY · 85 days
Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 9−1
Jun 17at NYYNYY 10 − 5
Jun 16at NYYNYY 12 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Sep 24, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CHWNYY 5 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 4
Aug 14, 2024at CHWNYY 10 − 2

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jun 9vs ATL6 − 5W
Jun 7at PHI5 − 9L
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L