bayesRatings

White Sox at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 12:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final CHW 4 – DET 5
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CHW0000021001461
DET00001001125130
Team box
CHW·DET
6
hits
13
1
home runs
1
0
walks
4
7
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
122
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET2-5112
Luisangel AcunaCHW1-3112
Tristan PetersCHW2-3102
Zach McKinstryDET2-2001
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-4001
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis MartinCHW6.05134
Brandon Eisert (L)CHW0.02100
Keider MonteroDET7.06303
Will Vest (W)DET1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
CHW +3
12345678910
largest lead: DET 1 · CHW 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 47%, DET 53% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
DET by 0.5
Expected score
DET 4.3 – 3.8 CHW
Expected total
8.2
White SoxThe matchupTigers
+113Our fair odds−113
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.09Power rating−0.03
4.7Runs / game4.1
4.7Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game7.7
1.40Home runs / game1.12
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
39−36Season record32−44
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11347%−10350.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11353%−12154.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.5
CHWChicago White Sox+0.5our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.5 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more40%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.64 ERA, 12 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·DET
Jun 20 at DET
last game
Jun 20 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
CHW·DET
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.7
runs / game
4.1
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.1
39−36
season record
32−44
24−12
home record
20−16
15−24
away record
12−28
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.7
1.40
home runs / game
1.12
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.51
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CHW · DET · 88 days
Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Jun 20at DETDET 4 − 1
Jun 19at DETDET 4 − 3
May 31at CHWCHW 2 − 1
May 30at CHWCHW 7 − 1
May 29at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at DETCHW 6 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at DETDET 6 − 0
Sep 5, 2025at DETCHW 7 − 5
Aug 13, 2025at CHWDET 1 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CHWCHW 9 − 6

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L
Jun 18at NYY5 − 1W
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W
Jun 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jun 9vs ATL6 − 5W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 20vs CHW4 − 1W
Jun 19vs CHW4 − 3W
Jun 17at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 16at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 15at HOU9 − 3W
Jun 13at CLE1 − 3L
Jun 12at CLE2 − 3L
Jun 11vs MIN11 − 0W
Jun 10vs MIN4 − 6L
Jun 9vs MIN10 − 4W