bayesRatings

Guardians at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CLE 1 – CHW 2
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000010000161
CHW00010100230
Team box
CLE·CHW
6
hits
3
1
home runs
1
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
11
101
pitches thrown
135
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kahlil WatsonCLE2-4111
Miguel VargasCHW1-4111
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3001
Austin HedgesCLE2-3000
Randal GrichukCHW1-3100
Steven KwanCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (L)CLE7.232110
Sean Burke (W)CHW6.16116
Sean Newcomb (S)CHW2.20012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, CHW 49% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupWhite Sox
−104Our fair odds+104
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.08
4.0Runs / game4.7
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.5Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game1.39
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
41−38Season record40−37
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHW chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10451%−11653.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10449%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCHW wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHW
Jun 22 at CHW
last game
Jun 22 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
CLE·CHW
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.0
runs / game
4.7
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
41−38
season record
40−37
19−17
home record
25−12
22−21
away record
15−25
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
1.39
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.46
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CLE · CHW · 90 days
Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 3−7
Jun 22at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 0
Aug 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 4
Aug 9, 2025at CHWCLE 3 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at CHWCLE 9 − 5
Jul 13, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 5
Jul 12, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 2
Jul 11, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 4

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 22at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L
Jun 20at HOU8 − 1W
Jun 19at HOU3 − 9L
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L
Jun 18at NYY5 − 1W
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L
Jun 14vs LAD6 − 4W
Jun 13vs LAD1 − 7L
Jun 12vs LAD8 − 2W