bayesRatings

Mariners at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final SEA 3 – CLE 1
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA001000110361
CLE100000000140
Team box
SEA·CLE
6
hits
4
1
home runs
0
6
walks
1
13
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colt EmersonSEA1-2211
Kahlil WatsonCLE1-4001
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-4001
Julio RodriguezSEA1-4001
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4000
Steven KwanCLE1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (W)SEA6.04114
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00002
Joey CantilloCLE6.02129
Tim Herrin (L)CLE1.01120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · SEA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.8 – 3.5 SEA
Expected total
7.3
MarinersThe matchupGuardians
+106Our fair odds−106
3.5Expected runs3.8
+0.03Power rating+0.03
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game4.0
7.6Hits / game7.5
1.22Home runs / game0.93
3.3Walks drawn / game3.8
41−41Season record42−39
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10648%−11252.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10652%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.3
Over7.3our total————
Under7.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.3 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 9.524%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CLE
Jun 25 at PIT
last game
Jun 24 at CHW
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
SEA·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
41−41
season record
42−39
22−19
home record
19−17
19−22
away record
23−22
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
7.5
1.22
home runs / game
0.93
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.48
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

SEA · CLE · 93 days
Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Mar 29at SEASEA 8 − 0
Mar 28at SEACLE 6 − 5
Mar 27at SEASEA 5 − 1
Mar 26at SEACLE 6 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at CLESEA 4 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 15, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 14, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jun 13, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 20vs BOS1 − 5L
Jun 19vs BOS2 − 6L
Jun 18vs BAL3 − 0W
Jun 17vs BAL3 − 5L
Jun 16vs BAL3 − 1W
Jun 14at WSH1 − 10L

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 24at CHW4 − 3W
Jun 23at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 22at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L
Jun 20at HOU8 − 1W
Jun 19at HOU3 − 9L
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W