bayesRatings

Mariners at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, Jun 25 · 11:35 AM CT · PNC Park · Final SEA 1 – PIT 5
← MLB / Jun 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000010000160
PIT10200002581
Team box
SEA·PIT
6
hits
8
0
home runs
2
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
13
119
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-4112
Henry DavisPIT2-3212
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-4001
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-5001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-3100
Jared TrioloPIT1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Miller (L)SEA5.253011
Bubba Chandler (W)PIT5.15134

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 4 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 50%, PIT 50% · Updated Jun 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
8.6
MarinersThe matchupPirates
+101Our fair odds−101
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.02
4.1Runs / game5.0
4.0Allowed / game4.8
7.7Hits / game8.9
1.23Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
41−40Season record40−40
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10150%−15460.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10150%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byPIT wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more37%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 23 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·PIT
Jun 24 at PIT
last game
Jun 24 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
SEA·PIT
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.1
runs / game
5.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.8
41−40
season record
40−40
22−19
home record
21−20
19−21
away record
19−20
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.9
1.23
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.48
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SEA · PIT · 92 days
Seattle MarinersPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Jun 24at PITPIT 11 − 1
Jun 23at PITSEA 3 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jul 5, 2025at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jul 4, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at PITSEA 10 − 3
Aug 17, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 2
Aug 16, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 3
May 28, 2023at SEASEA 6 − 3
May 27, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 0

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 20vs BOS1 − 5L
Jun 19vs BOS2 − 6L
Jun 18vs BAL3 − 0W
Jun 17vs BAL3 − 5L
Jun 16vs BAL3 − 1W
Jun 14at WSH1 − 10L
Jun 13at WSH3 − 8L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W
Jun 23vs SEA2 − 3L
Jun 21at COL8 − 6W
Jun 20at COL1 − 2L
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L
Jun 13vs MIA3 − 2W