bayesRatings

Rangers at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TEX 3 – TOR 2
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX100001001372
TOR000000020262
Team box
TEX·TOR
7
hits
6
1
home runs
1
6
walks
1
10
strikeouts
8
130
pitches thrown
164
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan LukesTOR2-4112
Joc PedersonTEX1-5111
Elias DiazTEX2-4001
Josh JungTEX2-5000
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4000
George SpringerTOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kumar RockerTEX6.04015
Cole Winn (W)TEX2.02202
Tyler Alexander (S)TEX1.00001
Shane BieberTOR5.15244
Louis Varland (L)TOR1.01103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · TEX 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupBlue Jays
+110Our fair odds−110
4.2Expected runs4.3
−0.01Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.06Home runs / game1.02
3.3Walks drawn / game2.8
41−42Season record39−44
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · TOR chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11048%+10947.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11052%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.2our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·TOR
Jun 27 at TOR
last game
Jun 27 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
TEX·TOR
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
41−42
season record
39−44
19−18
home record
22−23
22−24
away record
17−21
W3
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.06
home runs / game
1.02
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.45
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

TEX · TOR · 95 days
Texas RangersToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Jun 27at TORTEX 7 − 4
Jun 26at TORTEX 5 − 4
Jun 25at TORTEX 6 − 5
Aug 17, 2025at TORTEX 10 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at TORTOR 14 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 5
May 28, 2025at TEXTOR 2 − 0
May 27, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
May 26, 2025at TEXTOR 2 − 1
Sep 19, 2024at TEXTOR 4 − 0

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 26at TOR5 − 4W
Jun 25at TOR6 − 5W
Jun 24at MIA2 − 4L
Jun 23at MIA4 − 6L
Jun 22at MIA4 − 3W
Jun 21vs SD4 − 3W
Jun 20vs SD4 − 6L
Jun 19vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 18vs MIN3 − 9L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W
Jun 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jun 19at CHC2 − 16L
Jun 18at BOS4 − 3W
Jun 17at BOS3 − 0W