bayesRatings

Rangers at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 11:10 AM CT · loanDepot park · Final TEX 2 – MIA 4
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000100001260
MIA00011002460
Team box
TEX·MIA
6
hits
6
2
home runs
1
0
walks
3
7
strikeouts
11
123
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Otto LopezMIA2-3212
Wyatt LangfordTEX2-4111
Joc PedersonTEX1-4111
Griffin ConineMIA1-4001
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4001
Kyle StowersMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX6.04228
Eury PerezMIA4.23101
John King (W)MIA1.01001
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.01100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 3 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.2 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.4
RangersThe matchupMarlins
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.2Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.03Home runs / game0.90
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
38−41Season record41−39
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10748%−12154.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10752%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more35%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more25%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·MIA
Jun 23 at MIA
last game
Jun 23 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
TEX·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
38−41
season record
41−39
19−18
home record
27−17
19−23
away record
14−22
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.03
home runs / game
0.90
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.46
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

TEX · MIA · 91 days
Texas RangersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Jun 23at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Jun 22at MIATEX 4 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at TEXMIA 4 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at TEXMIA 4 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TEXMIA 6 − 4
Jun 2, 2024at MIATEX 6 − 0
Jun 1, 2024at MIATEX 7 − 0
May 31, 2024at MIAMIA 8 − 2
Aug 6, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Aug 5, 2023at TEXTEX 9 − 8

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 23at MIA4 − 6L
Jun 22at MIA4 − 3W
Jun 21vs SD4 − 3W
Jun 20vs SD4 − 6L
Jun 19vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 18vs MIN3 − 9L
Jun 16vs MIN2 − 12L
Jun 15vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 23vs TEX6 − 4W
Jun 22vs TEX3 − 4L
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W
Jun 16at PHI2 − 8L
Jun 15at PHI0 − 7L
Jun 14at PIT4 − 2W
Jun 13at PIT2 − 3L