bayesRatings

Rangers at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final TEX 4 – MIA 6
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0100000124100
MIA010140006121
Team box
TEX·MIA
10
hits
12
2
home runs
3
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
6
133
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joe MackMIA2-4112
Owen CaissieMIA1-4113
Joc PedersonTEX3-5111
Brandon NimmoTEX2-5112
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-3211
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cal QuantrillTEX2.03101
Jose Corniell (L)TEX3.17523
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA6.25134

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: MIA 5 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.2 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.3
RangersThe matchupMarlins
+106Our fair odds−106
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.01Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.01Home runs / game0.87
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
38−40Season record40−39
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10648%+14041.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10652%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more35%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more25%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 14.66 ERA, 5 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·MIA
Jun 22 at MIA
last game
Jun 22 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
TEX·MIA
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
38−40
season record
40−39
19−18
home record
26−17
19−22
away record
14−22
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.01
home runs / game
0.87
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.46
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

TEX · MIA · 90 days
Texas RangersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jun 22at MIATEX 4 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at TEXMIA 4 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at TEXMIA 4 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TEXMIA 6 − 4
Jun 2, 2024at MIATEX 6 − 0
Jun 1, 2024at MIATEX 7 − 0
May 31, 2024at MIAMIA 8 − 2
Aug 6, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Aug 5, 2023at TEXTEX 9 − 8
Aug 4, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 2

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 22at MIA4 − 3W
Jun 21vs SD4 − 3W
Jun 20vs SD4 − 6L
Jun 19vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 18vs MIN3 − 9L
Jun 16vs MIN2 − 12L
Jun 15vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 22vs TEX3 − 4L
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W
Jun 16at PHI2 − 8L
Jun 15at PHI0 − 7L
Jun 14at PIT4 − 2W
Jun 13at PIT2 − 3L
Jun 12at PIT8 − 3W