bayesRatings

Twins at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final MIN 4 – TEX 2
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN300001000440
TEX002000000250
Team box
MIN·TEX
4
hits
5
2
home runs
1
2
walks
0
11
strikeouts
7
104
pitches thrown
116
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN2-4113
Joc PedersonTEX2-3112
Byron BuxtonMIN1-4111
Austin MartinMIN1-4100
Elias DiazTEX1-2100
Nicky LopezTEX1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike ParedesMIN4.24202
Taylor Rogers (W)MIN0.10001
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.10001
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX7.044210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · MIN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 44%, TEX 56% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
TEX by 0.8
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 3.6 MIN
Expected total
8.1
TwinsThe matchupRangers
+126Our fair odds−126
3.6Expected runs4.5
−0.15Power rating+0.01
4.6Runs / game4.0
5.2Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.18Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
33−40Season record35−36
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TEX chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12644%+12943.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−12656%−15460.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.8
MINMinnesota Twins+0.8our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.8 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more43%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINMike Paredes SP · last 1 start: 3.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TEX
Jun 14 vs STL
last game
Jun 14 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
MIN·TEX
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.6
runs / game
4.0
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
33−40
season record
35−36
20−19
home record
17−14
13−21
away record
18−22
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.18
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.60
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

MIN · TEX · 82 days
Minnesota TwinsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Sep 25, 2025at TEXMIN 4 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at TEXMIN 4 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at MINTEX 16 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MINTEX 16 − 4
Aug 18, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 5
Aug 17, 2024at TEXMIN 5 − 2
Aug 16, 2024at TEXMIN 4 − 3
Aug 15, 2024at TEXMIN 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 14vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 13vs STL6 − 9L
Jun 12vs STL9 − 8W
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L
Jun 11at KC4 − 2W
Jun 10at KC6 − 4W
Jun 9at KC3 − 5L
Jun 7vs CLE10 − 0W
Jun 6vs CLE0 − 6L
Jun 5vs CLE3 − 2W
Jun 3at STL3 − 5L